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Millwall v Oxford Betting Tips and Bet Preview

The second of two Johnstone’s paint Trophy area semi finals will take place this evening when Oxford travel to take on League One Millwall, as they look to the topple higher league opposition for the second time in a week. Millwall are favourites to win the game, but the U’s are undoubtedly the form side.

The outright market at bet365 sees Millwall priced as 2.25 favourites to win the first leg. Visitors Oxford are slightly longer at 3.10. The draw can be backed at 3.40 which is an outcome we’ve seen in seven of the last 13 Area final games, including last weeks 1-1 draw between Barnsley and Fleetwood.

A more interesting trend in the competition is the lack of home wins. Chesterfield, then 2-1 winners over Oldham and Swindon, who toppled Barnet 1-0, are the sole winners of a home tie since 2012. Since then, the away side has avoided defeat in 13 straight games.

Be it relevant to this game or not, that’s a particularly strong trend that you cannot ignore. Clearly the competition format brings out the best in sides on their travels. During those 13 games we have only seen a League Two side visit a League One side twice, but current form is going to be key here.

Oxford are in fantastic form overall. They come here on the back of a 3-2 win over Swansea City and with four days rest I don’t foresee any problems with fitness. Oxford should be extremely confident having lost just twice in 24 games, and once in their last 10 away outings.

Millwall have generally been strong at home but that seems to be fading at present. The Lions have lost three consecutive games at home, including a 2-1 decision against League Two Wycombe. Millwall had won back to back games prior, but both were against struggling sides in Bury and Colchester. Millwall have won back to back games against League opposition only once since late October.

Goals aren’t always easy to come by in this competition. We see some extremely cautious performances which is especially true of first leg games. However, whilst Millwall have been scoring, they’ve struggled defensively also. 10 of their last 13 games have featured at least three goals.

Oxford have seen their last two cup ties finish 3-2 in their favour, with a 4-2 win over Notts County wedged in between. Four of the u’s last six have gone over the total. We have to consider that Oxford will come here and look to play on the counter, though.

Oxford have registered a goal in 10 of their last 11 away games, whilst Neil Harris’ men have scored in eight of 11. They’ve failed to find the net during their last two home games, though.

Considering everything we’ve said, Millwall are capable of winning and scoring goals, but they’re just slipping out of form and they’re facing a super confident side who can tear teams apart on the counter. We perhaps shouldn’t expect a high scoring game, so neither side should ever be out of reach of levelling the game when one does take the lead.

Keeping in mind home sides have failed to win any of the last 13 JPT ties, let’s back Oxford United +0.25AH at 1.850 with Bet365

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Betting Tips